Martin Lewis on Energy: Should You Fix or Stay?

Martin Lewis, the consumer finance campaigner, has said that for most households the 13% energy price cap rise from 1 July 2026 is avoidable by fixing a tariff below the cap rather than sitting on a standard variable tariff. If you are on a default tariff and paying more than you need to, that is the single decision worth making now.

The energy price cap is the maximum unit rate and standing charge Ofgem lets suppliers charge on a standard variable tariff, not a cap on your total bill. From 1 July 2026 the cap rose by around 13% for a typical direct debit household, driven almost entirely by higher gas costs. Fixing a rate below that cap means you sidestep the increase and lock in your unit prices for the term.

Free Price Compare sources its energy figures from Ofgem and cross-checks supplier tariffs across the whole market, so the deals you see are not filtered to only those that pay a commission.

Last updated: July 2026

Written by the Free Price Compare editorial team | Reviewed July 2026

Why Martin Lewis says the July price rise is avoidable

Martin Lewis has said that for most households the July 2026 price cap rise is effectively voluntary, because you can escape it by moving off a standard variable tariff onto a fixed deal priced below the cap. The point he makes is that the cap is a default, not a fixed cost you are locked into.

Ofgem confirmed on 27 May 2026 that the energy price cap rose by around 13% for the quarter running 1 July to 30 September 2026, taking a typical direct debit bill on the old usage benchmark to around £1,862 a year, up from about £1,641. According to Ofgem, the rise was driven by wholesale gas prices climbing about 28% over the previous three months.

Fixed deals sitting below the cap were available before the rise took effect, which is why the increase was avoidable for anyone willing to switch. Ofgem noted that around 40% of accounts, roughly 22 million, were already on fixed tariffs and so saw no change on 1 July.

See energy tariffs below the cap

What is the energy price cap and how does it work?

The energy price cap is the maximum that suppliers in England, Scotland and Wales can charge per unit of gas and electricity, plus the daily standing charge, on a standard variable tariff. It is set by Ofgem and updated every three months. It does not cap your total bill: the more energy you use, the more you pay.

From 1 July 2026, the price cap set the average direct debit electricity unit rate at 26.11p per kWh with a standing charge of 57.19p a day, and gas at 7.33p per kWh, all including 5% VAT (Ofgem, 27 May 2026). Rates vary by region, so your exact figures depend on where you live.

A standard variable tariff is the default deal you fall onto when a fixed contract ends or if you never switch. It always tracks the price cap, so it moves up and down each quarter with Ofgem’s decisions. If you are on one, you are exposed to every future rise.

The two headline figures in circulation both come from Ofgem and are worth understanding. On 1 July 2026 Ofgem lowered its assumption of how much a typical household uses, cutting the electricity benchmark from 2,700 to 2,500 kWh and gas from 11,500 to 9,500 kWh a year. That produces a £1,663 typical figure on the new basis and around £1,862 on the old one. The unit rates are the same; only the assumed usage differs.

Should you fix your energy tariff or stay on the price cap?

You should consider fixing if you can find a fixed-rate tariff priced below the current price cap, because that locks in your unit rates and protects you from further quarterly rises. Martin Lewis has said fixing looks like the risk-averse choice for most people, given the cap was predicted to rise again in October 2026.

A fixed-rate energy tariff is a deal where your unit rates and standing charge stay the same for a set period, usually 12 months, regardless of what the price cap does. If the cap rises during your fix, you are shielded; if it falls below your fixed rate, you could end up paying slightly more, which is the trade-off.

Before the July 2026 rise, some fixed deals were already priced below the cap, meaning they were saving money at the time, and once the cap rose they became meaningfully cheaper than the new cap. Whether that gap still exists depends on live pricing at your postcode.

• Fixing suits you if you want certainty and think the cap will rise or stay high.
• Staying on the cap suits you if you expect wholesale prices to fall sharply and want to ride the drop.
• Check exit fees: leaving a fix early can cost a set fee per fuel with some suppliers, though several tariffs charge nothing, so confirm the exact figure in your tariff’s terms before switching.

Compare fixed energy deals at your postcode

Why gas bills rose more than electricity in July 2026

Gas bills rose far more than electricity in July 2026 because the wholesale gas price is what drove the cap increase. Ofgem’s data showed gas unit rates rising by around 24% while electricity rose by only about 5% for the quarter from 1 July.

In cash terms, a typical household saw its gas costs go up by roughly £180 while electricity added about £40, based on supplier analysis of the Ofgem change. That means the July rise hit homes that heat with gas hardest, particularly larger properties and those with older boilers.

This split matters for how you shop. If you use a lot of gas, the value of fixing is greater because you are protecting a larger, more volatile part of your bill. If you are on electric heating or a heat pump, the increase was more modest, but specialist time-of-use tariffs can still cut your costs further.

Standing charges: what you pay before using any energy

A standing charge is a fixed daily fee you pay to be connected to the gas and electricity networks, regardless of how much energy you use. From 1 July 2026 the average direct debit standing charge came to around £315 a year before you switch anything on (Ofgem, May 2026).

Standing charges are one area where suppliers can compete within the cap. Some tariffs cut the standing charge below the maximum, which helps low-usage households and people who are away for parts of the year. Martin Lewis has flagged low-standing-charge tariffs as useful for smaller households, though they can mean higher unit rates, so the maths depends on your usage.

If you use very little energy, a low-standing-charge deal can save more than a low-unit-rate deal, because the fixed daily fee makes up a bigger share of a small bill. If you are a high user, the opposite is usually true.

Not sure if fixing beats the cap for you?

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Which energy supplier does Martin Lewis recommend?

Martin Lewis does not formally endorse a single supplier, but he has consistently praised Octopus Energy for customer service and has pointed households towards whichever fixed deal is cheapest at any given time. The honest answer is that the best supplier is the one with the cheapest suitable tariff at your postcode, not a fixed name.

A recurring warning from Martin Lewis is that some comparison services hide tariffs that do not pay them a commission, and the cheapest fixes are often the ones that do not pay. He advises always finding the option to show all tariffs, whole of market, before deciding. Free Price Compare shows tariffs across the whole domestic market rather than filtering to paying suppliers only.

Beyond price, worth checking are exit fees, whether the tariff needs a smart meter, and the supplier’s service record. Several Octopus tariffs carry no exit fees, whereas some rivals charge a fee to leave a fix early, which matters if you might want to switch again before the term ends, so check the supplier’s own tariff terms for the current amount.

Smart and time-of-use tariffs for EV and heat pump owners

Time-of-use tariffs charge different unit rates at different times of day, rewarding you for shifting usage to cheaper off-peak windows. They suit electric vehicle owners who can charge overnight and homes with heat pumps or storage heaters that can run in set windows.

Overnight EV tariffs offer very low unit rates in a set night-time window, often single-digit pence per kWh, which is far below the July 2026 cap electricity rate of 26.11p per kWh. Heat pump tariffs price cheaper rates across a few daytime and evening windows to match when a pump runs efficiently.

These tariffs only pay off if you can move a large share of your usage into the cheap windows, and most require a smart meter and, for EV deals, a compatible charger. If your usage is spread evenly through the day, a straightforward fixed tariff is usually the better bet.

Check smart and fixed energy tariffs

How to switch energy supplier with confidence

Switching energy supplier is free, takes around five working days for most households, and you keep the same gas and electricity supply throughout, so nothing physical changes in your home. Ofgem rules protect you if anything goes wrong during a switch.

Before you switch, have a recent bill or your online account to hand so you know your current tariff, annual usage in kWh and whether you have any exit fees. Comparing on usage rather than an estimate gives a far more accurate result, so use a real meter reading or your annual consumption figure where you can.

• Note your exit fee, if any, and whether the saving from switching outweighs it.
• Check the new tariff’s contract length and whether the price is fixed or variable.
• If you receive support such as the Warm Home Discount or are on the Priority Services Register, confirm it carries across.
• You have a 14-day cooling-off period after switching in which you can cancel.

The next price cap, covering 1 October to 31 December 2026, will be published by Ofgem by 26 August 2026, so the position could shift again. Comparing now against a fix protects you regardless of which way that announcement goes.

Information correct as of 5 July 2026. Prices, tariffs, policy details and providers change frequently, so please check the latest details before making a decision. This article is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Free Price Compare is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).