Energy Bills Set to Drop 7% in July 2024

Get ready for some good news on the energy front! Domestic energy bills across the UK are predicted to fall by a whopping 7% come July 2024. This means lower costs for gas and electricity, and a much-needed break for household budgets.

The upcoming price cap announcement from Ofgem, the energy regulator, is expected to bring down the typical annual bill by around £100. This could mean a decrease from the current £3,280 to about £3,050 for direct debit customers.

What’s Driving the Predicted 7% Drop in Energy Bills?

So, what’s behind this projected decrease in energy bills? It all comes down to the Ofgem price cap, which sets the maximum prices energy suppliers can charge per unit of energy (measured in pence per kilowatt hour or kWh).

The price cap takes into account a range of factors, including:

• Wholesale energy prices
• Network costs
• Supplier operating costs

Every three months, Ofgem reviews and adjusts the cap to reflect changes in these underlying costs. The next adjustment, set for July 2024, is expected to lower the cap and bring down prices for millions of households.

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How Will the July 2024 Price Cap Reduction Impact UK Households?

The 7% drop in energy bills is a welcome relief for households across England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. With the cost of living soaring and inflation squeezing budgets, any reduction in essential expenses like gas and electricity is a big deal.

The lower prices will ease some of the pressure on household finances, potentially freeing up money for other necessities or even a bit of discretionary spending. However, it’s important to remember that energy bills will still be higher than they were before the pandemic and the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s actions.

What Is the Ofgem Price Cap and How Does It Work?

The Ofgem price cap is a key tool for regulating energy prices and protecting consumers. It was introduced in January 2019 to limit the amount suppliers can charge customers on default tariffs, like standard variable tariffs.

The cap applies to all domestic energy customers in Great Britain who are on these default tariffs – around 22 million households. It’s calculated based on the costs suppliers face, including wholesale prices, network charges, and operating expenses.

Twice a year, Ofgem reviews the cap and makes adjustments to reflect changes in these costs. The next review, effective from July 2024, is expected to lower the cap and bring down prices for households.

How Does the Energy Price Guarantee Affect Household Bills?

In addition to the Ofgem price cap, the UK government’s Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) has been shielding households from the full impact of soaring energy costs.

Under the EPG, a typical household pays an average of £2,500 per year for their energy, with the government compensating suppliers for the difference between this level and the Ofgem price cap.

However, from April 2023, the EPG level increased to £3,000 per year, meaning households are now paying closer to the Ofgem cap. The predicted 7% reduction in the Ofgem cap in July 2024 will help bring down costs further.

How Have Energy Prices Changed Since the Pandemic and Ukraine Invasion?

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have had a profound impact on energy prices in the UK and across Europe.

During the initial lockdowns in 2020, energy demand plummeted, causing prices to drop. But as economies reopened and demand rebounded, prices began to climb sharply.

The Ukraine invasion in February 2022 sent shockwaves through global energy markets, pushing prices even higher. Sanctions on Russia, a major supplier of oil and gas to Europe, disrupted supply chains and drove up costs.

As a result, the Ofgem price cap has seen unprecedented increases, reaching an all-time high of £4,279 per year in Q2 2023 (before the EPG was applied).

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What’s the Future Outlook for Energy Bills in the UK?

While the 7% drop in July 2024 is good news, the future of energy bills remains uncertain. Some experts predict further decreases later in 2024, with the October price cap potentially falling another 10-15%.

However, these projections depend on a range of factors, including:

• Geopolitical events (like the situation in Ukraine)
• Global, EU and UK energy demand
• Weather patterns (which affect heating and cooling needs)

Households should remain cautious and prepared for potential fluctuations in energy costs in the coming months. Budgeting and energy-saving measures can help manage expenses in the face of ongoing uncertainty.

Understanding Your Energy Bill

When it comes to your energy bill, there are a few key terms to know:

• Unit rates: This is the price you pay per kWh of gas or electricity you use. The price cap sets the maximum unit rates suppliers can charge.
• Standing charge: This is a daily fixed amount you pay, regardless of how much energy you use, to cover the costs of supplying energy to your home.

For a typical dual fuel household paying by direct debit, the current unit rates are around:

• Electricity price: 33p per kWh
• Gas price: 11p per kWh

And the standing charges are about:

• Electricity: 46p per day
• Gas: 28p per day

These rates and charges can vary slightly based on factors like your payment method (direct debit, standard credit, or prepayment meter), where you live, and your tariff type.

The July 2024 price cap change is expected to lower these unit rates and standing charges, which will be reflected in lower bills for households. If you have a prepayment meter or pay by standard credit, you may see slightly different prices, but the overall trend of lower bills should still apply.

The Impact of VAT on Energy Bills

Another factor that affects your energy bill is VAT (Value Added Tax). Currently, domestic energy typical consumption is subject to a reduced VAT rate of 5%, compared to the standard rate of 20% for most other goods and services.

However, this reduced rate is set to expire in March 2024, and there are concerns about the impact this could have on bills. If the rate returns to 20%, it could add around £100 to the typical annual bill, partially offsetting the savings from the July 2024 price cap reduction.

The government is facing calls to extend the reduced VAT rate or find other ways to support households with energy costs. As we head into autumn and winter, when energy consumption typically rises, this will be an important issue to watch.

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What Support Is Available for Households Struggling with Energy Costs?

Despite the expected decrease in energy bills, many households will still struggle to make ends meet. The UK government offers several support schemes to help, including:

• The Household Support Fund, which provides short-term financial assistance through local authorities
• The Warm Home Discount, which offers a one-off discount on electricity bills for eligible households

The Winter Fuel Payment, an annual tax-free payment to help with heating costs

Households in need should contact their local council or energy supplier to explore the support options available to them.

Practical Steps for Managing Your Energy Costs

As we await the official price cap announcement from Ofgem, there are steps you can take to manage your energy costs:

• Submit regular meter readings to ensure accurate bills
• Consider switching to a fixed-rate tariff for price stability (though be aware of potential exit fees)
• Implement energy-saving measures like insulation, draft-proofing, and using energy-efficient appliances

Energy Price Cap Statistics (Ofgem)

Source: Ofgem, 2023

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is the Ofgem price cap?

The Ofgem price cap is a regulatory measure that sets the maximum amount energy suppliers can charge customers on default tariffs, such as standard variable tariffs. It is reviewed and adjusted by Ofgem every six months to reflect changes in wholesale energy prices, network costs, and supplier operating costs.

2. How does the price cap differ from the Energy Price Guarantee?

The Ofgem price cap sets the maximum amount suppliers can charge per unit of energy, while the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) is a government scheme that limits the average bill to a specific amount (currently £3,000 per year). The government compensates suppliers for the difference between the EPG level and the Ofgem price cap.

3. Will the 7% reduction in energy bills apply to all households?

The expected 7% reduction in July 2024 will apply to households on default tariffs (such as standard variable tariffs) that are protected by the Ofgem price cap. This accounts for around 22 million households in Great Britain. Those on fixed-rate tariffs may not see the same reduction, as their prices are locked in for a specific period.

4. Can I switch to a fixed-rate tariff to protect myself from future price increases?

Yes, you can switch to a fixed-rate tariff to lock in your energy prices for a set period (usually 12-24 months). This can provide stability and protection against future price hikes. However, be aware that fixed-rate tariffs may have exit fees if you decide to switch before the end of the contract.

5. What should I do if I’m struggling to pay my energy bills?

If you’re having difficulty paying your energy bills, contact your supplier as soon as possible. They may be able to offer you a payment plan, hardship fund, or other support. You can also check if you’re eligible for government schemes like the Warm Home Discount or Winter Fuel Payment. Additionally, seek advice from organisations like Citizens Advice or National Energy Action.

6. How will the July 2024 price cap change be reflected in my energy bills?

The July 2024 price cap change will be reflected in your energy bills through lower unit rates and standing charges. Ofgem typically announces the new price cap levels in relevant publications about 6 weeks before they come into effect. Energy suppliers then adjust their prices to comply with the new cap, and these changes are passed on to customers in the quarterly bills for the second half of the year. While the exact rates may vary slightly due to rounding to two decimal places, the overall effect will be a decrease in the cost per kWh of electricity and gas consumed.

The 7% reduction in energy bills in July 2024 is a glimmer of hope for UK households grappling with the cost of living crisis. While the road ahead is uncertain, policymakers, energy suppliers, and consumers must work together to ensure a fair, sustainable, and affordable energy future for all.